← Primera Division 2016-17 · Tue, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 54% | 46% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.52 | value: +7% |
| Leganes win | 18% | 24% | 5.33 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Adrián Marín · Leganes |
| 29' | ⚽ | Eliaquim Mangala · Valencia CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 66' | 🟨 | Eliaquim Mangala · Valencia CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alberto Martín · Leganes |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alberto Martín · Leganes |
| 80' | 🟥 | Alberto Martín · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 26 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days | 89.00 | 1368.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1526.67 | 1448.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.91 | -18.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.39 | — |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |