← Primera Division 2016-17 · Tue, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 52% | 50% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 20% | 24% | 5.00 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · Real Betis Balompié |
| 39' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · Málaga CF |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jonas Martin · Real Betis Balompié |
| 60' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Real Betis Balompié |
| 63' | 🟨 | Bruno González · Real Betis Balompié |
| 68' | 🟨 | Miguel Torres · Málaga CF |
| 74' | ⚽ | Antonio Sanabria · Real Betis Balompié |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jony · Málaga CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Álvaro Cejudo · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juankar · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Adán · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1502.30 | 1465.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.26 | -22.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |