← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 56% | 49% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.57 | value: +8% |
| CA Osasuna win | 16% | 21% | 6.04 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 270.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1541.02 | 1375.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.23 | -13.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.48 |
| league points | 32.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 63.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.22 | -1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -1.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |