← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 39% | 34% | 2.51 | fair |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 33% | 38% | 2.98 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 28 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicente Calderón |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1914.00 | 971.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1770.10 | 1882.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.56 | 10.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.88 |
| league points | 45.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 23.18 | — |
| state index | 1.04 | 1.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |