← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 43% | 38% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 26% | 31% | 3.76 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 30' | ⚽ | Martín Mantovani · Leganes |
| 62' | 🟥 | Raúl Albentosa · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 63' | 🟨 | Germán Lux · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 66' | 🟨 | Erik Morán · Leganes |
| 69' | 🟨 | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 69' | 🟨 | Florin Andone · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 75' | 🟨 | Guilherme · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fernando Navarro · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 81' | ⚽ | Unai López · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joselu · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alberto Bueno · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1365.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1431.04 | 1467.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.78 | -23.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 70.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.26 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |