← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 50% | 53% | 1.98 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.61 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 23% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Adrián González · Eibar |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrián González · Eibar |
| 52' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 53' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Málaga CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 71' | 🟥 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 77' | 🟨 | Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Málaga CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Miguel Torres · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bebé · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 605.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1531.87 | 1516.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.67 | -1.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 35.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |