← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 65% | 73% | 1.51 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.90 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 15% | 10% | 6.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 9' | ⚽ | Fabián Orellana · Valencia CF |
| 19' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Valencia CF |
| 44' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Enzo Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 59' | 🟨 | Raphaël Varane · Real Madrid CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Eliaquim Mangala · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 83.00 | 418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 4.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1518.34 | 1904.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.07 | -4.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 23.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.39 | 25.88 |
| state index | -0.10 | 1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |