← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 24% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Mauricio Lemos · Las Palmas |
| 21' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Málaga CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | José Rodríguez · Málaga CF |
| 26' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · Málaga CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Charles Días · Málaga CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kevin-Prince Boateng · Las Palmas |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jesé Rodríguez · Las Palmas |
| 69' | 🟨 | Keko · Málaga CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | José Rodríguez · Málaga CF |
| 70' | 🟥 | José Rodríguez · Málaga CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Aythami Artiles · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 23 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 81.00 | 962.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.37 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1507.40 | 1519.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.89 | -13.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| league points | 23.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |