← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 57% | 53% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.70 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 16% | 27% | 6.04 | value: +64% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Pione Sisto · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jozabed Sánchez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 964.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1584.70 | 1381.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.41 | -4.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| league points | 30.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -2.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.11 | -1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -1.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |