← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 89% | 90% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 5% | 13.20 | fair |
| Leganes win | 3% | 5% | 28.40 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 46' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 55' | 🟨 | Martín Mantovani · Leganes |
| 71' | ⚽ | Unai López · Leganes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Martín · Leganes |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 964.00 | 1359.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.32 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1881.58 | 1432.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.73 | -30.08 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.53 |
| league points | 48.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.72 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 1.85 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |