← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 65% | 61% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.76 | value: +13% |
| Eibar win | 15% | 15% | 6.70 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
| 65' | 🟨 | Fran Rico · Eibar |
| 66' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mariano · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vitolo · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 262.00 | 598.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1667.58 | 1539.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.07 | 50.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |