← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 44% | 53% | 2.25 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.13 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 25% | 21% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Guilherme · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 42' | 🟨 | Marcos Llorente · Deportivo Alavés |
| 51' | 🟨 | Deyverson · Deportivo Alavés |
| 67' | 🟨 | Raúl Albentosa · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 80' | 🟨 | Bruno Gama · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 86' | 🟨 | Germán Lux · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carles Gil · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 17.00 | 262.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1478.38 | 1498.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.55 | 6.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.10 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |