← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 38% | 42% | 2.57 | value: +7% |
| Granada win | 32% | 27% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Mehdi Carcela-González · Granada |
| 28' | ⚽ | Adrian Ramos · Granada |
| 33' | ⚽ | Andreas Pereira · Granada |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Granada |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jonas Martin · Real Betis Balompié |
| 55' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Granada |
| 62' | 🟨 | Adrian Ramos · Granada |
| 64' | ⚽ | Adrian Ramos · Granada |
| 66' | 🟥 | Andreas Pereira · Granada |
| 66' | 🟥 | Matías Nahuel · Real Betis Balompié |
| 75' | ⚽ | Petros · Real Betis Balompié |
| 81' | 🟨 | Uche Agbo · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1409.90 | 1489.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.35 | 12.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |