← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 55% | 58% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.72 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 18% | 19% | 5.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Charles Días · Málaga CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Málaga CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Keko · Málaga CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Martín Demichelis · Málaga CF |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 71' | 🟥 | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Duda · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 195.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 4.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1621.21 | 1502.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.47 | -40.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |