← ATP Tour 2020 · semifinals · Astana Open (Hard) · Sat, Oct 31, 05:00 PM UTC · sets: 3-6 6-4 6-4
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Frances Tiafoe win | 56% | 1.78 |
| John Millman win | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| best of | 3 |
| comment | Completed |
| court | Indoor |
| location | Nur-Sultan |
| series | ATP250 |