← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 79% | 80% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 7.06 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 7% | 11% | 14.10 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Juan Rafael Fuentes · CA Osasuna |
| 24' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 28' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 33' | ⚽ | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
| 37' | 🟨 | Fausto Tienza · CA Osasuna |
| 61' | 🟨 | James Rodríguez · Real Madrid CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Goran Čaušić · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 41.00 | 407.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1383.56 | 1900.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.07 | -6.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.81 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.49 |
| state index | -1.07 | 1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.85 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |