← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 39% | 43% | 2.52 | value: +7% |
| Valencia CF win | 32% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 102.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1613.72 | 1603.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.05 | -7.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.53 |
| league points | 23.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 25.90 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |