← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 75% | 73% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.84 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 9% | 11% | 11.35 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 37' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 40' | ⚽ | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
| 59' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 59' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 63' | ⚽ (og) | Alexis Ruano · FC Barcelona |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 255.00 | 956.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1504.79 | 1875.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.24 | 1.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.90 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.86 |
| league points | 27.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| state index | 0.09 | 1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |