← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 71% | 66% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 5.03 | value: +12% |
| CA Osasuna win | 10% | 12% | 9.96 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 462.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1711.23 | 1453.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.00 | -1.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 35.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.34 | -1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.14 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | -2.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |