← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 75% | 80% | 1.30 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.15 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 9% | 6% | 11.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
| 22' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 27' | 🟨 | Ander Iturraspe · Athletic Club |
| 34' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 40' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | ⚽ | Aleix Vidal · FC Barcelona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 949.00 | 1344.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 4.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1870.44 | 1621.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.03 | 6.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.36 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| league points | 42.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.05 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 1.51 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |