← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 36% | 36% | 2.71 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 35% | 40% | 2.78 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nani · Valencia CF |
| 42' | ⚽ | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
| 44' | 🟨 | Enzo Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 48' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Valencia CF |
| 51' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Valencia CF |
| 51' | 🟥 | Munir El Haddadi · Valencia CF |
| 57' | ⚽ | Mauricio Lemos · Las Palmas |
| 61' | ⚽ | Kevin-Prince Boateng · Las Palmas |
| 64' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 941.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1527.22 | 1534.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.19 | 22.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.96 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.56 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |