← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 45% | 36% | 2.19 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 28% | 31% | 3.54 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.55 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.68 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 242.00 | 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1630.12 | 1787.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.75 | 68.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| league points | 26.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.12 | 27.92 |
| state index | 0.34 | 1.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |