← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 76% | 72% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.30 | value: +12% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 8% | 10% | 12.00 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Petros · Real Betis Balompié |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 74' | ⚽ | Álex Alegría · Real Betis Balompié |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rubén Castro · Real Betis Balompié |
| 78' | 🟨 | André Gomes · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 943.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1484.03 | 1877.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.43 | 10.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 1.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| league points | 22.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 68.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 2.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 2.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| state index | 0.12 | 1.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |