← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 70% | 73% | 1.41 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.90 | fair |
| Granada win | 10% | 9% | 9.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 42' | ⚽ | Bruno Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 48' | 🟨 | Sergi Samper · Granada |
| 73' | ⚽ | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gastón Silva · Granada |
| 88' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 180.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1711.95 | 1520.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.23 | -20.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| league points | 31.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 24.70 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |