← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 42% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 30% | 32% | 3.31 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Mario Fernández · CA Osasuna |
| 76' | ⚽ | Goran Čaušić · CA Osasuna |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 26.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1384.89 | 1515.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.82 | -43.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| league points | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.10 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.26 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.18 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |