← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 62% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.42 | value: +3% |
| CA Osasuna win | 15% | 17% | 6.40 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Fausto Tienza · CA Osasuna |
| 15' | ⚽ | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
| 18' | 🟨 | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 19' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · Sevilla FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Adil Rami · Sevilla FC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Vicente Iborra · Sevilla FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Vicente Iborra · Sevilla FC |
| 63' | ⚽ (og) | Vicente Iborra · CA Osasuna |
| 65' | ⚽ | Vicente Iborra · Sevilla FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mario Fernández · CA Osasuna |
| 81' | 🟨 | Oriol Riera · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kenan Kodro · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.64 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 21.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1389.13 | 1677.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.51 | 52.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.77 |
| league points | 9.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.61 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| state index | -1.22 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.75 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |