← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 75% | 79% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.27 | fair |
| Eibar win | 9% | 9% | 11.03 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 31' | ⚽ | Denis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 42' | 🟨 | Arda Turan · FC Barcelona |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 50' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 68' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 571.00 | 936.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1499.21 | 1872.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.27 | 4.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 26.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 2.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| state index | 0.04 | 1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |