← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 86% | 79% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 17% | 9.95 | value: +68% |
| Málaga CF win | 5% | 5% | 21.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Juankar · Málaga CF |
| 43' | ⚽ | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 63' | ⚽ | Juanpi Añor · Málaga CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Michael Santos · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 386.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1894.32 | 1517.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.46 | -41.64 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 46.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 40.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.52 | — |
| state index | 1.47 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |