← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 42% | 40% | 2.31 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.46 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Iñigo Martínez · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 55' | 🟨 | Esteban Granero · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 62' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 70' | 🟨 | Asier Illarramendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 46.00 | 442.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.61 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1638.30 | 1692.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.76 | -21.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 21.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.88 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |