← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada win | 48% | 37% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 24% | 37% | 4.08 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Granada |
| 12' | ⚽ | Oriol Riera · CA Osasuna |
| 13' | 🟨 | Fausto Tienza · CA Osasuna |
| 66' | 🟨 | Oriol Riera · CA Osasuna |
| 67' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 69' | ⚽ | Artem Kravets · Granada |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Ponce · Granada |
| 73' | 🟥 | Uche Agbo · Granada |
| 79' | 🟨 | Álex Berenguer · CA Osasuna |
| 83' | 🟨 | Franck Tabanou · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Ponce · Granada |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ezequiel Ponce · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days | 228.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1425.25 | 1386.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.20 | -26.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.47 |
| league points | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.81 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |