← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 88% | 83% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 12% | 11.40 | value: +40% |
| Las Palmas win | 4% | 5% | 25.50 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Las Palmas |
| 14' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 25' | 🟨 | Rafinha Alcântara · FC Barcelona |
| 29' | 🟨 | Javier Mascherano · FC Barcelona |
| 32' | 🟨 | André Gomes · FC Barcelona |
| 41' | 🟨 | Hélder Lopes · Las Palmas |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kevin-Prince Boateng · Las Palmas |
| 57' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 59' | ⚽ | Arda Turan · FC Barcelona |
| 77' | 🟨 | Marko Livaja · Las Palmas |
| 80' | ⚽ | Aleix Vidal · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 928.00 | 925.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1868.86 | 1533.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.55 | 17.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | 1.37 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | 1.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |