← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Jan 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 50% | 43% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.64 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 23% | 34% | 4.26 | value: +43% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Valencia CF |
| 7' | ⚽ | Oriol Riera · CA Osasuna |
| 9' | 🟨 | Mario Suárez · Valencia CF |
| 24' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Iván Márquez · CA Osasuna |
| 41' | 🟨 | Eliaquim Mangala · Valencia CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Oriol Riera · Valencia CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 73' | ⚽ | Martín Montoya · Valencia CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 88' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 8.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1384.63 | 1505.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.58 | -23.00 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.98 |
| state index | -1.47 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |