← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 57% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.69 | fair |
| Eibar win | 17% | 18% | 5.87 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Adrián González · Eibar |
| 29' | 🟨 | Šime Vrsaljko · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 54' | ⚽ | Saúl Ñíguez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 74' | ⚽ | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 81' | 🟨 | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 89' | 🟨 | Bebé · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 556.00 | 1864.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1496.36 | 1754.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.67 | -37.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 2.36 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.18 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |