← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 63% | 51% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 32% | 4.29 | value: +35% |
| CA Osasuna win | 14% | 17% | 6.98 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 200.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1584.60 | 1454.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.60 | -34.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| league points | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -2.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 28.22 | 27.00 |
| state index | 0.12 | -1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |