← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 64% | 63% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.73 | value: +6% |
| Málaga CF win | 15% | 14% | 6.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Luciano Vietto · Sevilla FC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Luciano Vietto · Sevilla FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Nicolás Pareja · Sevilla FC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Vitolo · Sevilla FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · Sevilla FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Adil Rami · Sevilla FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Adil Rami · Sevilla FC |
| 61' | 🟥 | Adil Rami · Sevilla FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mikel Villanueva · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 199.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1631.51 | 1554.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.82 | 15.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 30.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |