← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 86% | 78% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 10.05 | value: +11% |
| CA Osasuna win | 4% | 11% | 25.65 | value: +182% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 52' | 🟨 | Iván Márquez · CA Osasuna |
| 59' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 72' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 39.00 | 893.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1396.72 | 1867.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.42 | -8.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| league points | 7.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.79 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.29 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |