← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 53% | 58% | 1.83 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.64 | fair |
| Leganes win | 20% | 18% | 4.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 21' | ⚽ | Marko Livaja · Las Palmas |
| 22' | 🟨 | Martín Mantovani · Leganes |
| 36' | 🟨 | Víctor Díaz · Leganes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 75' | 🟨 | David García · Las Palmas |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marko Livaja · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 890.00 | 1288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1534.41 | 1472.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.39 | -18.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| league points | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.82 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.51 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |