← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 59% | 61% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.13 | fair |
| Granada win | 17% | 16% | 5.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Tito · Granada |
| 43' | 🟨 | Miguel Torres · Málaga CF |
| 46' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Málaga CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | Uche Agbo · Granada |
| 61' | 🟨 | Matthieu Saunier · Granada |
| 74' | 🟨 | Isaac Cuenca · Granada |
| 81' | ⚽ | Artem Kravets · Granada |
| 87' | 🟨 | David Lombán · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mikel Villanueva · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 8.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1559.07 | 1432.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.80 | 10.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |