← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 60% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.30 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 17% | 17% | 5.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · Málaga CF |
| 7' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 9' | 🟨 | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Álvaro Medrán · Valencia CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · Valencia CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Álvaro Medrán · Valencia CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Aymen Abdennour · Valencia CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 13 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1511.71 | 1558.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.69 | 30.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| league points | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.98 | — |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |