← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 51% | 48% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.36 | fair |
| Eibar win | 20% | 26% | 4.98 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Takashi Inui · Eibar |
| 41' | 🟨 | Alejandro Gálvez · Eibar |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pedro León · Eibar |
| 42' | ⚽ | Beñat Etxebarria · Athletic Club |
| 55' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 61' | 🟨 | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
| 70' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mikel San José · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 1282.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 1.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1621.47 | 1505.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.22 | 31.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| league points | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |