← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 73% | 74% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.30 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 8% | 13% | 11.85 | value: +52% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 26.00 | 1823.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1412.82 | 1776.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.56 | -45.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.46 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.45 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |