← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 60% | 55% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.89 | fair |
| Granada win | 15% | 23% | 6.49 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 34' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Granada |
| 39' | ⚽ | Théo Bongonda · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sergi Samper · Granada |
| 62' | 🟨 | Franck Tabanou · Granada |
| 87' | ⚽ | Artem Kravets · Granada |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pape Cheikh · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 4 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| coach days | 300.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1688.43 | 1533.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.20 | -0.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.68 | 25.35 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |