← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 55% | 58% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.07 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 21% | 18% | 4.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ (og) | Ezequiel Garay · Sevilla FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Valencia CF |
| 75' | ⚽ | Nicolás Pareja · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Guilherme Siqueira · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 178.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.93 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1619.57 | 1517.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.78 | -3.78 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 24.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.98 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |