← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 51% | 46% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.79 | value: +15% |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 23% | 24% | 4.30 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | Celso Borges · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 10' | 🟨 | Luisinho · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Michael Santos · Málaga CF |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Michael Santos · Málaga CF |
| 72' | ⚽ | Florin Andone · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 76' | 🟨 | Juanpi Añor · Málaga CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 81' | ⚽ | Celso Borges · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | 🟨 | Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 24 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 209.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1552.78 | 1462.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.85 | -19.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |