← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 46% | 52% | 2.15 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.42 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 26% | 21% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟥 | Cristiano Piccini · Real Betis Balompié |
| 19' | ⚽ | Pedro León · Eibar |
| 23' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 72' | 🟨 | Bruno González · Real Betis Balompié |
| 84' | ⚽ | Rubén Castro · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 513.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1493.44 | 1483.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.05 | 1.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |