← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Nov 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 51% | 59% | 1.91 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.48 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 20% | 17% | 4.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Robert Ibáñez · Leganes |
| 32' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 43' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 55' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Rivière · CA Osasuna |
| 57' | ⚽ | Robert Ibáñez · Leganes |
| 62' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 88' | 🟨 | Miguel Olavide · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1269.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1473.61 | 1423.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.72 | -0.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 60.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 33.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -3.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -1.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |