← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 46% | 53% | 2.15 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.38 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 25% | 23% | 3.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Sergio Álvarez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| -4' | 🟨 | John Guidetti · RC Celta de Vigo |
| -4' | 🟥 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 9' | ⚽ | Fran Rico · Eibar |
| 30' | 🟨 | Théo Bongonda · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Rubén Peña · Eibar |
| 79' | 🟨 | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rubén Blanco · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 86' | 🟨 | Facundo Roncaglia · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Hernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 507.00 | 872.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1481.69 | 1603.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.01 | 17.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| league points | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |