← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 81% | 85% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.65 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 6% | 5% | 16.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Federico Ricca · Málaga CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF |
| 69' | 🟥 | Diego Llorente · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Juankar · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 872.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1881.56 | 1544.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.27 | 28.79 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 45.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 25.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.21 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | 1.44 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.30 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |