← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 89% | 89% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 8% | 13.90 | value: +5% |
| Leganes win | 4% | 4% | 26.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Darwin Machís · Leganes |
| 17' | 🟨 | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 38' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pablo Insua · Leganes |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Martín Mantovani · Leganes |
| 76' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Omar Ramos · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Víctor Díaz · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 310.00 | 1254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1886.95 | 1475.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.02 | -40.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.60 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 52.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| league points | 24.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.51 | — |
| state index | 1.54 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |