← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 37% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.08 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 31% | 27% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Unai García · CA Osasuna |
| 65' | 🟨 | Fausto Tienza · CA Osasuna |
| 73' | 🟨 | Gaizka Toquero · Deportivo Alavés |
| 75' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Santos · Deportivo Alavés |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cristian Espinoza · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Flaño · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 4.60 |
| coach days | 4.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1434.39 | 1453.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.93 | -7.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 55.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.80 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.84 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.89 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |